HH16 Look Back :(

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

When I returned to using StockFetcher last month I created a small watch list in an attempt to monitor the daily scan results more closely. I have done a bad job with the updating and only this weekend returned to look at the list. The following was created for July 06, 2009. OUCH. The table shows the entry and current price along with the percentage net change.


I am trying not to beat myself up too much when I look at this. Not easy.

I will forgive myself easily for making mistakes. I will easily move on to new opportunities. I will easily continue to learn, evolve and adapt. These things allow me to be a successful trader.

I can console myself by thinking that my scan method produced some good results. After that it is time to move on. It is now time to learn, evolve and adapt. Time to review the above and then look for current opportunities. Time to look at the present and not the past.

Thank you for your time.

The chart of ZLC. Time to learn and not bemoan.

HH13 UTSI (Three's)

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

UTSI chart. More a curiosity but actually warming up to the chart. The levels are marked on the chart with each number divisible by 3. The 1.575 is the half way point between 1.35 and 1.80. See what the future brings. Love the three's and nine's.

I would also like to again express my deep thanks to Dongoro for originally posting the concept of three's and nine's on his web site. I am sorry to say that the site is no longer available and I do not know how to contact him. Thank you Dongoro.

Thank you for your time.

HH13 Spreadsheet

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Only one stock highlighted, UTSI. The only reason this one will get some attention is the number 3. Yep, a magic number. A channel shape bounded by 1.80 at the top and 1.35 at the bottom. This puts 1.575 as the middle. For the last month the price has been in the top half of the larger channel above 1.575. More out of curiosity than anything else I plan to watch what happens. I will do a separate post with the chart to give the visuals.

For now the table. Fuzzy so click to enlarge.

Thank you for your time.

HH12 Spreadsheet

Hello and welcome to my blog.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Still smiling about how easy it is to post a table of the scan results. There are two new stocks that are greened and I plan to keep an eye on them over the next little while. When I find the time I will outline why certain ones get picked for closer attention while others are discarded.

So far I am happy about using this new way of doing things. Will have to see how I feel about the changes in a couple of weeks or so.

Thank you for your time.

HH11 PCBC 2

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Just an update. Despite being down a lot today I still like the way this chart looks. Would set a stop and re-evaluate at 2.44. This is the blue line. Going down through this would mean keeping an eye out for the 2.00 - 2.08 level, the most recent low area.

There is just something about the channel on this chart that is appealing. Will continue to monitor and see what happens.

Thank you for your time.

HH11 Spreadsheet

Hello and welcome to my blog.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Only ZSL caught my eye. The only reason it got attention is that it is near a low set in June. See what happens.

The photo software I am using to easily post these tables is by: http://www.serif.com/ Thank you Serif.

Thank you for your time.

HH11 Gambling Risk

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"There are two great pleasures in gambling: that of winning and that of losing."

This quote crossed my path twice recently. Perhaps a coincident, perhaps not. Anyways, it reminded me that it is the pleasure of the game that matters and not the final outcome. The act of taking on a stock position should be a pleasant experience. If it is not a pleasant experience than perhaps something is wrong.

To use the old catch phrase: Plan the trade. Trade the plan. With any plan the risk levels must be set before entry. Always determine the exit strategy before entry. So, if the trade goes against you then you are out before any major damage takes place. You take a chance and play, you lose, but you followed your plan, so you move on and look for the next opportunity. Take pleasure in playing the game because the next time may be a winner.

Thank you for your time.

HH10 Dang SpreadSheets

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

I am going to try and just paste the scan results onto this blog. I am tired of doing things twice by using google docs. As always just end up with a list. DANG, and I thought it might have changed.

HA. Found the solution. Make the spreadsheet a picture and upload. Shaking head and grinning to self at such an easy solution. Golly.

For today only a couple catch my eye. GSAT and HW, highlighted in green.



I will explain the signal headings in a later post. If you go back to the PCBC entry from yesterday you can see them on the chart along with some stop levels. I will get around to further explanations in a couple of days or so.

Thank you for your time.

HH10 PCBC

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Just a quick chart of PCBC. I finally worked out a rough outline for the scans to use in determining candidates for trade consideration. The one that caught my eye was PCBC.
I plan to monitor this stock over the next week.

Thank you for your time.

HH09 RESTART 2

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I wanted to edit the first post of today but got cut off by technical difficulties.

The MISSION STATEMENT in the previous post still stands and my course correction has started. New and improved is on the way.

Thank you for your time.

HH09 RESTART

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The past few weeks have been spent gettin lost inside the little box. Learning curves, charts, too much, too little, this way, that way. In the last little while the inherent uncertainties of the markets have flowed into my own brain. A world filled with maybes and what-ifs. Instead of guiding my ship through the sea I have let the sea toss me around like a cork. Not a good thing.
Now is the time to take hold of the tiller and steer my own course.

While surfing the net and practicing avoidance behavior I came across the following forum thread. http://sites.google.com/site/stratsstressfreetrading/

You can go and read the whole thread if you like but the following few lines are what I came away with.

quote
I am a professional trader. My job is to take risk. If I manage my losses and let my profits run I will be successful. Because I am a professional trader, I will forgive myself easily for making mistakes and move on to new opportunities. I feel great that I have the discipline to control my emotions and the patience required to be a professional trader. I am a professional trader and will make $1,000,000 by year end. I will achieve this by following my trading plan, setting achievable goals, and controlling my emotions. I am confident and believe in my own ability to be consistently profitable because I AM a professional trader.

The first thing, after identifying a trade MUST ALWAYS BE - WHAT IS MY RISK?...
The ONLY thing they care about is how much they can LOSE. Amateurs and all other traders think just the opposite - how much can they make.

Here's a quote from the book, "Techniques of Tape Reading" , by Vadym Graifer and Christopher Schumacher - "Professionals take a trade when they are comfortable with the risk, while amateurs do it when they like the potential profit."

Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down.

I trade TO LIVE, the losers LIVE to trade.
unquote

I have modified the first section to become my own mission statement. A way to rebuild my own confidence and get hold of the tiller and back on course.

MISSION STATEMENT

I am a successful trader.
My job is to manage risk.
I will cut my losses and let my profits run.
I will forgive myself easily for making mistakes.
I will easily move on to new opportunities.
I will easily continue to learn, evolve and adapt.
These things allow me to be a successful trader.

I feel great because I have the discipline to control my emotions.
I feel great because I have the ability to be a successful trader.
I am a successful trader and will make $1,000,000 by year end.

I will achieve this goal by following my trading plan.
I will achieve this goal by setting achievable goals.
I will achieve this goal by controlling my emotions.
I am confident and believe in my own ability to be consistently profitable.
I AM a successful trader.

GG19 MAJOR CHANGE

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed in this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Trust the nines. Boy o boy. The Dow liked 8100 and promptly zoomed higher in the last 4 days. Wow...now paused at 8700, a number divisible by 3. Above this is 9000, a 3 and a 9 number as well as an easy one to remember. You have to be impressed by the power over the last few days. The next question is whether this is just a flash in the pan and part of a bear market correction or the real deal. Will have to wait and see.

Over the last couple of weeks I have been looking at Darvas box stuff. I started by using the canned formulas available on the net and then playing around to try and find something to my liking. For my own peace of mind it was necessary to have something that made sense to me. There is no point in using something that does not feel right.

Although derived from the Darvas Box method I feel that the changes I have made no longer qualify what I have created to be called the Darvas Box method. So with a bow to the original creator I will call it a Darvas Box Variation or DBV. Since I have two variations one will be DBV1 and the other DBV2.

A chart is quicker than words so these two indicators are shown on the chart below of AAI. These are simply the box bottoms only with DBV1 providing a potential long entry signal. This signal occurs when the price moves from below the box bottom to above the box bottom. The green line and small diamond show when this occurs. If other evidence justifies an entry then a stop loss point could be placed at either the DBV1 level or the DBV2 level.

Over the last couple of weeks I have looked at hundreds of charts with these indicators. The variations are endless, however there seems to be a basic structure that stands out. Once the initial signal occurs it is necessary to examine the finer details. Some of these are:

• Relationship of DBV1 to DBV2.
• Relationship to 18 day and 81 day lows.
• Moving average structure.
• Trend phase.

Since the bus seems to be moving again these finer points are still in a working out stage. However the very basic frame now seems to be in place.

One of the problems I have is monitoring stocks once a signal has occurred. I have tried to use Excel to keep track but end up with a lot of maintenance work. The trees that I want to see and follow get lost in the forest. For this reason I think I am going to return to using Stockfetcher as a service. On their site I can create watch lists of the signals and then review them easily. The AAI chart provides an example of this. The DBV1 signal in early March may or may not have worked out. By using a monitoring service the price performance after the signal could have been easily followed. Four days after the DBV1 signal AAI crossed the moving average, this provided another chance to examine the potential of an up move and set stop loss points. Of course this is looking in the rear view mirror but examples have to come from somewhere. Whether this method works in the unknown future is just that, unknown.

Once I get Stockfetcher and Excel worked out I will resume posting a spreadsheet of the signals. These will probably be the DBV1 cross only with an alert when the moving average signal is given.

Link to Stockfetcher: http://www.stockfetcher.com/ui2/index.php

Thank you for your time.

GG13 CHANGES

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Changes. The bus has pulled over to the side of the road for a major overhaul. Smoke em if ya got em. There will be no spreadsheet for the next little while as I work things out. I will say there was a boatload of new up signals today as the market moved higher. Nuff said on that.

Trust the nines. Dow touched a couple of times in the last couple of days at 8100. Today with an up move. Only the Dow knows if if likes that as support or not.

Right now I am working on the Darvas box thing, or at least a variation of it. Plan to use box bottoms, not box tops, for entry signals. Once the bus gets fixed and back on the road I will fill in the details and start publishing a spreadsheet of the results.

Right now it is nice not to be driving and plan for a couple of weeks of just hanging out and seeing what the market does. Ask the universe, listen carefully, and there is always an answer.

Thank you for your time.

GG10 Spreadsheet Link

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The spreadsheet link for GG10 is below. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks listed. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

I am still working out new spreadsheet stuff. Doing more trashing around and avoidance behavior than actual work. Heck, it is summer and I have been doing other things.

With the Dow I will revise the possible neckline to 8100. Just a more pleasant number than 8200. Will have to see if it sets up as support or resistance.

Thank you for your time.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=trCy--jb-G4u6ZV4TaQwEWw&single=true&gid=0&output=html

GG09 Spreadsheet Link

Hello and welcome to my blog.

The spreadsheet link for GG09 is below. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks listed. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Dow hanging around 8200. Neckline or no? Support or resistance? See what happens.
My guess is move down.

Thank you for your time.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tYBRPX1jqJBWsuganCz8Qlw&single=true&gid=0&output=html

GG08 Spreadsheet Link

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The spreadsheet link for GG08 is below. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks listed. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Another day of slim pickings for up signals. Not surprised.

Dow through neckline and settled nearer 8100. If a valid head and shoulders then there should be a return to the neckline. At least in the text book examples. See what happens in real life.

Still working out new outline for presenting data. Looking for the time.

Thank you for your time.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t3HEOYtN-CzY4L6MODYrC5g&single=true&gid=0&output=html

GG07 Spreadsheet Link

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The spreadsheet link for GG07 is below. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks listed. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Hardly any entries in the spreadsheet today. At least for the up signals. Lots of down signals but not listed. Part of the changes going on here.

Dow going down today and through that call it a neckline at 82oo. Eye towards 8100 as pause point if breakdown valid. Love those nines. Rough measure of head and shoulders pencils to about 7600. Have to see what reality brings.

Thank you for your time.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tT9NAksdFFFaBluYdyZHCjA&single=true&gid=0&output=html

GG06 Spreadsheet Link

Hello and welcome to my blog.

The spreadsheet link for GG06 is below. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks listed. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Still a world in transition regarding presentation here. Probably more changes soon.
The list of up signals is a lot thinner than the last little while. Possible shades of things to come.

Dow touching near 8200 today. Saw a reference by someone about a head and shoulders pattern. The 8200 would be the neckline. Have to see if it remains unbroken.

The three things that really count in this game are price, volume and time. Right now I think time is coming into play. The standard 50 - 200 day moving averages are coming pretty close together. I do not use these canned numbers but they sure are popular so may have an influence. Wait and see what happens.

Thank you for your time.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tY8TGkvUDTIRxOmkojMTgMA&single=true&gid=0&output=html

GG02 Spreadsheet Link

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The spreadsheet link for GG02 is below. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks listed. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Still working things out as the bus keeps rolling down the road. All of the pieces are there, just scattered all over the road. Change the oil, kick the tires and keep moving forward.

Plans are in the works to re-think and re-organize in the next few weeks. See what happens.

Thank you for your time.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=r99_gi2gn0ePG6ij5HK3flQ&single=true&gid=0&output=html

GG01 Spreadsheet Link

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The spreadsheet link for GG01 is below. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks listed. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Up, down, up, down....Waiting on a holiday.

Thank you for your time.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=raNYJjoAQiFdeH2ZkU4GTqg&single=true&gid=0&output=html