Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below. Very few entries.
OCLS would be stopped out at 2.45. Proved wrong. Will continue to keep an eye. Post mortem later.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below. Just the list with no highlights. There will be some changes to the presentation in the next couple of weeks. Suffering from a bit of MetaStock and Excel burnout. Still need to work out an easier scan and a couple of other things. Jello still not set.
Q which is in the green diamond column all by itself and looks interesting. Will start to keep an eye but not a full monitor. OCLS made a low today of 2.46 which was one penny above the stop. Oy. Can not get any closer. Oy. Wrong until proven correct. Feeling wrong in a wrong way right now. See what tomorrow brings.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below with a lot of entries and a small change. I am going to stop adding the full list to the one posted here. So it will just be the stocks with signals. I am also going to change a couple of other things in the next week or so to incorporate the Slope indicator. Right now though just a basic table. Have a lot on my plate and a lot of changes to be made. The bus is being tuned up a little bit and I am have to get used to the added basic mechanics.
One new entry into the stocks I am watching. OCLS. It gave a slope signal and looks okay. Have to see what happens. I also worked out a trade sheet for this one which means some added work.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
I thought of the title 'Digging Holes' for this entry but figured that climbing and changing was more positive.
A few days ago in the library I noticed the book "Sell and Sell Short" by Elder. From his book I picked up a few ideas that I figured I could incorporate. The first was his calendar idea and using Outlook to track trades. Not exactly the format I wanted but the thought had been planted. The final result is the calendar format I presented a couple of days ago. Something I am happy with.
The other idea I picked up was the 2% money (risk) management concept. Although I already had something similar in place I got busy and formalized the concept. The idea became reality as another page in a spreadsheet. Very easy to create and grounded is better than floating. Now it is easy to just open the page and find the reference.
The final idea I picked up was his use of the slope of the moving averages. An idea I had toyed with before but never really pursued. Well, the last few days I have been looking into using the moving average slope as an indicator. Time to get out the crayons and throw more parts at the bus. So far I am pleased with my results. Right now though I am sitting with new stuff sloshing around in my brain waiting for the jello to gel.
Since I use 4 varieties of a moving average I took the slope of each of these and then took the average of this result. This seemed good as a trend indicator when it crossed from below to above 0. However it is a few days slower than the slope of the 18 day moving average. Given this lag I ended up using the faster 18 day moving average. The intention is to use the crossing of 0 as another entry signal and the slower one for confirmation. The confirming (lagged) signal also works well with the other trend signal I use. So the end result is the faster indicator has been added to the signals I am already using and the look so far seems promising. The major change is that it eliminates more of the early (false) signals which were showing up before.
With just the preliminary parts in place and only a cursory look at the charts I think it is worth keeping the slope indicator in place. The slightly larger time lag is compensated by the increase in confidence.
The next few weeks of real time will be the final decider of whether these added indicators are kept or not. Will just have to wait and see.
The chart of ALU follows. This has been used as an example in earlier posts. The gold price bars are when the slope indicator is above 0. These actually show up prior to the full ALL CLEAR signal during July. The jello is still hardening. The green line in the top pane is a histogram line of the slope indicator, the black histogram bar in the same pane is the moving average trend confirmation indicator.
Thank you Doctor Elder for the seeds.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
For awhile I have been looking for a way to track the stocks I have an interest in. Through a couple of chance encounters I think I have found the solution. The result is the table below. Some of the details still need to be worked out but a good frame now exists. Clear records are important to clear thinking. The bus just cleared another bump.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
SPX chart with signal. It is still above the moving averages and the confirming signal at the top of the chart remains positive. However, the move below Orange does give rise to some concern. This may possibly be just another pause in the up move similar to late June/early July, as well as the mid August pause. See what the future brings.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below. There are a lot of entries in the Orange column and with so many I did not provide the non ALL CLEAR list. One reason for the large amount is that the Orange is really a surrogate for one of the other Darvas Box bottoms. There would be a lot less if I culled out the anomalies by hand. Another reason for the large amount is that the Orange has moved from above the price to below the price. I do not think this is a good omen. It is a whole different story if the price moves from below a horizontal Darvas Box bottom to above it.
More and more my gut says that the last little while has been a distribution phase. This means that fewer candidates should show up on the scan lists. Evidence of this is in another record that I started keeping. This record is a sum of the signals of the total list of stocks I have in the scan. This is only a couple of weeks old so it is hard to say whether it will be of any use. Will have to wait until more data points are entered. However in the last couple of weeks the number of stocks giving a Black Arrow signal has dropped from 542 to 283 out of a total of 588. The Black Arrow is a basic longer trend indicator with the average price over the average/average. The other indicators are also showing similar drops and I plan to work on some graphs to get a visual of these.
As well as the drop in the number of positive aspect stocks, the SPX moved below the Orange a couple of days ago. I will post the chart later. This may just be a pause since the other major indices are still positive and have not signaled. It still makes me think that at least for now it is better to exercise a lot of caution regarding any entry signals given for individual stocks.
A few of the stocks on the watch list are still doing okay although it is getting thinner. I finally worked out a spreadsheet I am happy with to improve record keeping. I will provide this in another post. I have a couple of new things on the go again so please have patience as the bus continues to head down the road. Adapt to the changes and learn as you go. The ride is getting smoother despite feeling like going over a cliff at times.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below. Hardly any entries. No highlights.
EGLE off list with move below orange horizontal, SOLF back off list again with move below orange horizontal. Others not looking that pretty with the exception of COMS.
Update review this weekend.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below. UTSI with an orange sell signal. This is the three stock so will continue to watch. Possible test down to long sideways pattern. SOLF out, in, on the edge. HW back in but on the edge. Will do a full review over the weekend.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below. SOLF is back on the list with an ALL CLEAR today. Forgot to highlight it. Will wait to see how it does. A little late and a little tired so I will give a list update tomorrow. Everything looks okay.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
The new format for the table is below. I highlighted the ones that are ALL CLEAR. Maybe this will make them easier to see. These are stocks that have moved above all of the DARVAS BOX bottoms. None of the entries seemed to warrant further attention.
All of the stocks on the list I am watching are doing okay. The only one that was missed as an opportunity was WNR, taken off the list and now has moved up. Shrug. Will re-post the list tomorrow.
HW which came off the list last week, showed up today with a move above the orange horizontal. It has not moved into the ALL CLEAR list though. Will have to watch to see if it can make it onto the ALL CLEAR list in the near future. I do like the looks of this chart but right now there is no signal. Have to wait and see what the future brings.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
In the post of II07 I presented ALU as an example of using the clearing of all the DARVAS BOX bottoms as a possible entry signal. ALU is presented again but with a revised chart format. Almost the same but a little more fleshed out, an ALL CLEAR signal is now more distinct. This ALL CLEAR signal is now presented in the revised spreadsheet which I post daily.
In the earlier example I also looked at how the solid orange horizontal line could possibly be used as an exit point. An exit based on this criteria took place but was followed almost immediately by an ALL CLEAR entry signal. In this case an entry stop would have been placed at the dotted DARVAS BOX bottoms since these have the closest proximity.
So far the stock has performed alright. Remember though to "think wrong until proven correct".
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Ch..ch..ch..Changes. Once again a change. The table below is a revised version of how I will present the spreadsheet information. The intention is to eliminate the early (false) signals from the system. The columns labelled ALL CLEAR are the ones to focus on. The columns labelled FULL LIST are a reference to the complete list of signalled stocks. This is not the list to focus on but there may be something of interest there. Note that column 1 has no entries in the ALL CLEAR section, but 3 entries in the FULL LIST section.
The reason for this revision is that too many early (false) signals were being generated. This new method is designed to pick out only the stocks that have cleared all of the DARVAS BOX bottoms, not just the individual DARVAS BOX bottoms.
Please remember that even though a stock is on the ALL CLEAR list it does not mean there is an automatic entry. I still go through the list and try and figure out what looks good. These I will highlight if I decide the stock is worth further consideration.
If an entry is made the DARVAS BOX bottom with the closest proximity is used as a stop loss. If a trend becomes established then other stop criteria are used. I will expand on stop points in a later post.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Chart of ALVR. The original post of this chart is II08. Done okay so far. This update adds a trend ribbon (at the bottom) for the Darvas Bottom indicators, as well as a trend tick at the top of the chart. The trend tick being a confirming signal only.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below. Another day with only a few entries. No highlights. I have worked out another MetaStock chart expert which displays when the price has moved above all of the Darvas low horizontal lines. As well I have added a moving average trend indicator. Both of these are just more visual aides. As always the hope is to clarify and not confuse. I will provide an example chart in another post.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below. Very few entries with no highlights.
HW moves out of the list I am watching with a move below the orange horizontal. Will keep an eye though to see if it makes a successful test and then re-breaks up to the upside. Pop up in UTSI the three oddity stock.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below.
Thank you for your time.
Hello and welcome to my blog.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.
Table below, no review, no highlights, nothing new. List still doing okay.
Thank you for your time.
