Saturday, September 26, 2009

II25 Spreadsheet

Hello and welcome to my blog.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Table below. There are a lot of entries in the Orange column and with so many I did not provide the non ALL CLEAR list. One reason for the large amount is that the Orange is really a surrogate for one of the other Darvas Box bottoms. There would be a lot less if I culled out the anomalies by hand. Another reason for the large amount is that the Orange has moved from above the price to below the price. I do not think this is a good omen. It is a whole different story if the price moves from below a horizontal Darvas Box bottom to above it.

More and more my gut says that the last little while has been a distribution phase. This means that fewer candidates should show up on the scan lists. Evidence of this is in another record that I started keeping. This record is a sum of the signals of the total list of stocks I have in the scan. This is only a couple of weeks old so it is hard to say whether it will be of any use. Will have to wait until more data points are entered. However in the last couple of weeks the number of stocks giving a Black Arrow signal has dropped from 542 to 283 out of a total of 588. The Black Arrow is a basic longer trend indicator with the average price over the average/average. The other indicators are also showing similar drops and I plan to work on some graphs to get a visual of these.

As well as the drop in the number of positive aspect stocks, the SPX moved below the Orange a couple of days ago. I will post the chart later. This may just be a pause since the other major indices are still positive and have not signaled. It still makes me think that at least for now it is better to exercise a lot of caution regarding any entry signals given for individual stocks.

A few of the stocks on the watch list are still doing okay although it is getting thinner. I finally worked out a spreadsheet I am happy with to improve record keeping. I will provide this in another post. I have a couple of new things on the go again so please have patience as the bus continues to head down the road. Adapt to the changes and learn as you go. The ride is getting smoother despite feeling like going over a cliff at times.

Thank you for your time.


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